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Tuesday, April 8, 2008

Shortages and bubbles

The world is short of oil. Oil price went through the roof. This is followed by gold, commodities and food (i.e. wheat, rice, etc).

Is the world suddenly so short of these commodities, when it was in adequate supply two years ago? Why is there a sudden increase in consumption or a big drop in supply?

The main cause is speculation. When there is a small shortage, the speculators came into the picture and push up the prices. The ordinary people also start to stock up on food supply, aggravating the situation.

The world had gone through bubbles. It was the tulip bubble, South sea bubble. In more recent years, we have the dotcom bubble, the US housing bubble. Now we have the commodity bubble.

All bubbles will burst. Some burst earlier. Others burst later. Be careful. Do not be caught in the oil, gold or commodity bubble.

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