Economist and forecast

MM Lee had forecasted the economic growth to be 3% in 2010. A blogger commented that MM is not an economist and questioned how MM got his figures.

I am not an economist myself, but I will also make my own guess. Those who don't like my guess are free to ignore it. They are not required to challenge me.

I never knew that economic forecasting is the purview of economists and that other lesser mortals are not allowed to venture their guess. I am told that if you meet 20 economists, you are likely to get 40 forecasts and most of them are likely to be wrong. So why should this privilege of guessing wrongly belong only to certain people?

Albert Einstein once met a person with an IQ of 160. They discussed quantum physics. He later met someone with an IQ of 110. They discussed engineering. Then, he met someone with an IQ of 70. Einstein asked him, "what is the economic growth likely to be for next year?"

So, here is my guess. Economic growth for 2010 will be 0% to 2%. My guess is lower than MM. Why? I think that the stimulus would have run out and that people will realize that the underlying problems of the global economic system is quite serious. If I am wrong - attribute it to my IQ of 70.

Tan Kin Lian