SCMP:Policy chief expects march to reflect increasing civil discontent

1 July 2009

The government's top adviser expects the turnout for today's march to surpass last year's 47,000 because of the economic downturn and growing discontent with the administration's handling of controversial issues.

Lau Siu-kai, head of the Central Policy Unit, yesterday said that regardless of the turnout, the government should strive to improve its governance and restore people's confidence in the economic outlook.

Professor Lau said it was not sensible to use the turnout for a single march as the only yardstick to gauge changes in the political climate. He said economic indicators such as the jobless rate and the number of personal bankruptcy petitions should also be taken into account.

Professor Lau, who predicted shortly before the July 1 march in 2003 that only 30,000 would join the protest, declined to give an exact estimate for today's rally. Half a million turned out for the 2003 march.

He said he expected the number of people at today's march to be higher than last year.

He said the Central Policy Unit had conducted surveys recently on whether people intended to take part in the rally, but declined to reveal the outcome.

The Civil Human Rights Front, which organises the annual prodemocracy march, estimated that 47,000 people protested last year. But the police estimated last year's turnout at 15,500. A government source said earlier that the turnout for this year's march was expected to reach 100,000 or more.

Professor Lau admitted that Hong Kong's economy was facing hard times and many people were worried about the prospects for the economy.

"The government's handling of several issues in the past year has aroused dissatisfaction among many people," he said.

The top adviser cited the controversy over the appointment of deputy ministers and political assistants, the public outcry over the government's approval of an application by former housing chief Leung Chin-man to work with property developer New World China Land, and the administration's perceived failure to monitor the sale of minibonds issued by Lehman Brothers. Minibonds are not corporate bonds, but consist of high-risk credit-linked derivatives.

Professor Lau noted that young people were increasingly dissatisfied as the jobless rate for this sector of the community was higher than for other age groups.

"Many young people feel their expectations can't be realised, as social mobility in recent years is lower than for previous generations," he said, "A considerable number of young people have developed an anti-establishment mentality."

Professor Lau said economic development ranked much higher than democratic progress among the concerns of Hong Kong people.

Ivan Choy Chi-keung, a political scientist at Chinese University, said Professor Lau's assessment of public discontent was sensible. Mr Choy predicted a turnout of around 100,000 for today's march.