Population - NSP proposal

Lucky Tan talks about the alternative proposal put forward by the National Solidarity Party
http://singaporemind.blogspot.sg/2013/02/nsps-paper-on-population-is-actually.html

Family planning policy of the 1970s

I was asked, "Is the low birth rate in Singapore caused by the family planning policy, i.e. the 'Stop at Two' policy, implemented in the 1970s?" 

The answer is "no". The family planning policy affected the earlier generation, and not the young people today.

Our low birth rate today is due to a different set of circumstances. People are now marrying late, deciding to have fewer children, or to remain single.

The key factors are:

a) Time spent on National Service (for males), taking away two years of their time
b) Emphasis on university education, making people start work later
c) High cost of housing and cost of living, making young people delay getting married
d) Working too hard, leaving less time to find a suitable life partner
e) Worry about the high cost of raising children, i.e. tuition fees and other expenses
f) A different set of values, where having children is now not so important
g) Worry about saving enough money for retirement and health care cost for the elderly
h) In recent years, increased competition for jobs with foreigners, leading to depressed wages.

To increase our birth rates, we have to address the concerns of the young families today.

We have to find "out of the box" solutions, as the marriage and family packages adopted during the past two decades have failed to produce results. Insanity is described as "repeating the same methods and expected different results."

I will write about what I like to see as a new approach later. I like to hear your views.

Calculate yield on a complicated life insurance policy

Several people have asked for an Excel spread sheet to calculate the yield of the life insurance policy.

This spreadsheet is now available at the FISCA website, FOR MEMBERS ONLY.  You have to login and download the spread sheet to do the calculation.

The spreadsheet can take care of premiums that are payable over a limited period and also for benefits that are paid out in cash at certain duration of the policy.

It also calculates that amount that you should get, if your premiums earn you a yield of 4% per annum. I consider 4% to be an acceptable yield, for a life insurance policy that provides protection. Any yield lower than 4%, makes the life policy unattractive.

The information page of FISCA is shown here:
http://easyapps.sg/assn/Org/Information.aspx?id=5

Happy Lunar New Year 2013

I sent this letter to the Straits Times, but they declined to publish it.

28 January 2013

Editor
Forum Page
Straits Times

I understand that our election regulations allow any of the candidates to request for a recount if the 

difference between the candidate with the most votes and that for any other candidate is two percent or less

than the total number of votes cast. 

The results of the Punggol East by-election held on 26 January was earlier scheduled to be announced

by 10 pm. but was delayed due presumably to a recount. I had, therefore, expected to results to be quite close, 

with a margin of less than two percent between the top two contestants.

I was surprised that the margin was more than 10 percent. 

I like to ask the Election Department, if there was indeed a recount, and the reason why it was allowed, 

in infringement of the election regulation? If there was no recount, why did the results take so long to be 

announced?

Tan Kin Lian 

Get a better return on your CPF savings

Someone asked me to write about CPF.

He said,
"Most of CPF goes to ordinary account- buying government bonds and the return is 2.5%. i think this is terrible policy. Long term retirement savings should be partly invested in the stock market. ST index went up 20% this year and we stuck with 2.5% on the ordinary account.
Not everyone has high salary to save privately beyond what we get in CPF. Many people will not have enough to retire. this disaster is waiting to happen."

Here are my comments:

1. Most people use all of their ordinary account to pay for their HDB flat or private housing.

2. Those who do not use their ordinary account for housing has the option to invest their money under the CPF Investment Scheme into any of the approved investment scheme. They do not need to keep the money to earn 2.5% interest.

3. I recommend that they invest in the STI ETF (exchange traded fund) .This ETF earned a return of nearly 20% in 2012. Those who wish to know how to make this investment should attend the Talk on investments, organised by FISCA (www.fisca.sg).

6.9 million population is a worst case scenario

The Prime Minister and Minister of National Development has now said that the 6.9 million population is a "worst case scenario" and is used for planning purposes. 

Normally, in planning purposes, one does not just put out one scenario, especially when it is the worst case scenario and is not described as such. 

There is also the risk that the tail will wag the dog. Having planned the infrastructure and public services to meet this scenario, a future Government is not likely to see these facilities being wasted, and will increase immigration to take up the vacant facilities.

It is possible to build according to our actual needs, but this has to be carefully managed.

It is better to set a lower population target (say 5.5 million) and allow the population to increase due to birth. For the next few years, we need to sort out the current problem of congestion on the road, pubic transport, hospital, schools, housing and other pubic services.

I would have preferred the Prime Minister to say, "We issued the White Paper to get the reaction of the public. The message is quite clear, that the people does not wish to have a congested place. We will ask the planners to rework out the scenario for a smaller population".

That would be more honest, isn't it?